United League of American Base B

From the Triangle to the Diamond
What Would Pythagoras Do?
Questions for the OOTP Savior
Glen Reed
We recently sat down with the great Greek and OOTP deity, Pythagoras of Samos, to get his take on the upcoming UL season. The man immortalized on thousands of woven WWPD? bracelets has a place on every OOTP league standings page: Pythagorean Record. He's famous for this simple formulation: the more runs you score relative to your opponents, the more games you're likely to win. And you thought his fame rested on right angles and the ever-lovin' hypotenuse!

Q: What's your favorite saying?
A: Blessed are the OBPmakers, for they shall always have a place in my lineup.

Close second: It is easier for Hoyt Wilhelm to pass through the eye of a needle, than for a team to outperform on a Pythagorean basis with a poor bullpen.

Q: What team will lead the league in runs scored this year?
A: Tough question that likely comes down to four teams--Brooklyn, Cleveland, Louisville, and Chicago.

Brooklyn: The Brooks have led the league in scoring six consecutive years, and return all but one of their regulars from 1960. That loss is a big one, though, in the form of 30 taters and 90+ ribs courtesy of Frank Thomas. Versus righties, the Brooks may have actually improved by adding Jim Gentile, but that leaves a severe lack of punch from the right side, which could be telling against the league's upper-echelon lefties. Also, consider that the Bas rely heavily on oldsters Bobby Brown and Irv Noren, both of whom were brought back against long contractual odds at the age of 35. And if you doubt that age is becoming a factor, consider that last year's total of 816 runs is the club's lowest tally since the streak began in 1955. The trend line is clear--barring a major trade or Gentile exceeding all expectations, the scoring leader won't be Brooktown.

Cleveland: The Barons finished less than 50 runs off the pace last year, in a season that included horrible underperformance by long-time top-of-the-order stalwarts Richie Ashburn and Harvey Kuenn. A return to form by these two, as well as the continued maturation of mega-talent Norm Cash, augurs for a most offensive side indeed. One consideration though is that many Clevelanders last year had years in the neighborhood of their career best--Hal Jeffcoat, Billy Goodman, and Yogi Berra come to mind. But the biggest risk to CLE's offensive dominance is the age of UL all-time hit leader Gene Woodling. He missed a month of the season last year, so injuries are a growing concern, as are the talent downgrades that destroyed another great lefty hitter, Stan Musial, at a similar stage in his career. Tremendous potential, but mean reversion works both ways, so it's hard to see the Barons firing on enough cylinders to outplate the rest of the league.

Louisville: This is perhaps the most intriguing entry, with several high-profile players coming and going, making the runs created math difficult to follow. Suffice to say that the addition of Frank Thomas (91 runs created last year)--plus a full season out of Bill Skowron, who shared time with Gentile last year (add 'em together and you get 105! RC)--should add *at least* 20 runs to the bottom line (hard to tell because I'm not exactly sure who Thomas will displace in the lineup. Post? Simpson?). But the real wildcard is the loss of offensive catalyst, HoF second-sacker Nellie Fox, who generated nearly 78 RC last season. The job of replacing him falls to 26-yr old Felix Mantilla. Further, the Colonels have been wildly inconsistent offensively in recent years, which I attribute primarily to a lack of OBP, despite being one of the most mashing sides going. In other words, they're going to hit a lot of dongs, but will there be anybody on base this year? For these reasons, the betting community is laying longish odds on LOU.

So who's left? Chicago. Yes, they finished more than a hundred runs off the pace last year, but assuming BRO falls back to the pack, then you're 80 runs short of LOU and CLE. Funny number that, because it's so close to the 77 RC that new acquisitions Fox and White each bring to the table. They'll presumably be replacing such role players (miscast as major contributors last year) as Throneberry, Hoak, and Lumpe, who combined totaled only about 100 RC. And another huge reason we see Chicago leading the league in scoring this year--Ernie Banks. Incredibly, in Banks' time in the league, the ponies have never finished higher than fourth in runs scored (and some of those were pre-expansion to ten teams!). But now, with the acquisitions the last two years of Fox, White, Thompson, and Adcock via free agency, and Demeter, Roseboro, and Green by way of the draft, Mr. Colt finally has the supporting cast around him necessary to win the coveted league MVP award. Add it all up, and Pythagoras himself sees scoring and division titles for the long-suffering L. Michael Mueller.

Q: What's your favorite baseball movie?
A: The Untouchables. De Niro + de bat = de-vastatin'!

Q: Who'll be the 1961 rookie of the year?
A: Floyd Robinson--Floyd does only one thing well, but it should be enough to take home the hardware. My man swings a devastating lefty stick, and is nestled into a lineup fairly filled with OBP hounds. He'll sit against righties, and be replaced for defense late in games, both attempts to accentuate the positive, so much so that a 325/375/475 season is not out of the question despite his shortcomings. In fact, the player F-Rob most reminds me of is 1953 ROY winner and long-time Brooklyn Superba, Smoky Burgess. Proving an old axiom--if you have to be completely one sided, make it the left side.

Honorable mention in the ROY category goes to Arachnid CF Curt Flood, who's a Gold Glove-caliber player at arguably the most important defensive position (GG CFs take away doubles; GG SSs take away singles). He'll also rack up the base hits, but his lack of power and discipline likely will keep his OPS in the neighborhood of .700.

Q: Give me one reason Cleveland won't win the pennant this year.
A: How do you say in English, The Barons are a bunch of bitches?

Hot Links: Streamlining The "Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball", "Pythagoras of Samos"